Forecasting Factors for Manager and Management in Garhwali Folktale

  (A Research Review on Garhwali-Kumaoni –Haridwar Folk Literature)

                                (Folktales for Managers Series)

                          Management Lessons in Garhwali-Kumaoni Folktales -9

                Management Lessons in Garhwali –Kumaoni Folk Literature part -11

                     Research and Review by: Bhishma Kukreti

                  Forecasting is one of the vital aspects of management.

                  Forecasting is one of the planning tools for managers and in management that helps to chalk out to cope with uncertainty of the future, relying upon data from the past experience and present trends. 

            Forecasting starts from certain hypothesis based on the organization’s experience, knowledge, information and judgment.

  Forecasting is important for planning and decision making.

Forecasting methods are used in marketing, sales, manufacturing, purchase, inventory control, and in politics too.

  In management science till date, there are two main methods of forecasting –

                                 Subjective or Qualitative Approach of Forecasting

 Usually, in this method, the opinions of people are considered for forecasting.

Executive committee consensus – The knowledgeable executives are asked their opinions and a consensus is built. There is problem that powerful member or groups may influence the forecasting.

Delphi Method-In this method the experts are involved and eventually a consensus is developed. Usually, they make long term forecasting.

Sales force pr cadre force composite-The sales ore or cadre in politics are having ground reality knowledge and they involved in forecasting.

Consumer survey- By getting information from consumer survey the forecasting is done.

                       Objective or quantitative Approach of forecasting

                 Statistical formulations are used in quantitative forecasting method.

Time series Method-The independent variable is the time used to examine 1-Trends 2-Seasonal or 3-Factors that influence the demand data.

Casual Model-Barring time, other factors are used in forecasting

  Garhwali Folk literature is having instruction for better judgment on forecasting. For example, the following folktale from Gangasalan provides instruction that you should have certain data/certain solid base or certain important factor for forecasting.

       Barat Byoli Bagair Vapas kilai Ayi? Why did Marriage Party come back without Bride?

               This is a community story of Kukreti family of Jaspur, Malla Dhangu, Pauri Garhwal.

                      Gudud Ji was younger brother and Mani ram Ji was elder brother. Mani ram ji died in his earlier age and Mani Ram Ji took care to our forefather family. By blood Mani ram Ji our forefather but we are called Gudud Ji kaunk or decedents of Gudud Ji because he fostered our forefather’s family. Mani ram Ji was also a future teller.

             One day, Gudud Ji and Mani ram Ji were ion a hill Plato for grazing cattle.  From a short distance a marriage process of a groom passed away. The marriage party was going to bride village for groom. The drum players were playing drum with entertaining tunes and so was bagpiper player playing bagpiper. The marriage party guests were happy.

               Mani Ram Ji took a stem of Kunaj (an aromatic herb) and broke it. Mani ram Ji watched inside the stem and Mani ram Ji told his younger brother that the groom would come back without bride.

              Second day, around before noon, both the brothers were on the same place. They saw that same marriage party was coming back without bride and without playing musical instruments.

              Gudud Ji asked the guests for their not bringing bride. The guests of marriage party informed Gudud Ji that bride was pregnant before marriage.

  Gudud Ji asked his elder brother Mani Ram Ji,” Elder Brother! How did you come to know that marriage party would come without bride?”

         Mani ram Ji replied,” The future teller should have solid base to tell the future. The Future teller should not tell the future without solid base. I saw an insect inside Kunaj ku Kathuk l or I saw an insect inside the stem of Kunuj. Kunuj is aromatic herb and very rarely insect is seen inside Kunuj stem. By that incident I guessed that the bride would be pregnant and groom marriage party would come back without bride.”

 We should take care in telling future that there should be solid base for guessing the future.

 ** Late Mrs Kwanra Devi w/o of late Shri Shish Ram Kukreti of Jaspur, Pauri Garhwal narrated this story to the writer.

Copyright @ Bhishma Kukreti bckukreti@gmail.com  2/12/2013

     Notes on   Management Lessons in Garhwali –Kumaoni –Haridwar Folk Literature to be continued….

Management Lessons in Garhwali-Kumaon Folktales, Folk Stories, traditional Narratives, Community stories to be continued …

Research Review of Garhwali-Kumaoni Literature to be continued….

                  References

1-Bhishma Kukreti, 1984, Garhwal Ki Lok Kathayen, Binsar Prakashan, Lodhi Colony, Delhi 110003

2-Anil Dabral, 2007, Garhwali Gadya Parampara,

3- Bhishma Kukreti, 2003, Salan Biten Lok Kathayen, Rant Raibar, Dehradun

4- Bhishma Kukreti, October 2007, Gadhwali Lok kathaon ma Prabandh Shastra ki suchna, Chitthi Patrika (Lok Ktha Visheshank), Dehradun

Xx

  Notes on Forecasting Factors for Manager and Management in Garhwali Folktale from Garhwal; Forecasting Factors for Manager and Management in Garhwali Folktale from Malla Dhangu, Garhwal; Forecasting Factors for Manager and Management in Garhwali Folktale from Ganga Salan Garhwal; Forecasting Factors for Manager and Management in Garhwali Folktale from Pauri Garhwal; Forecasting Factors for Manager and Management in Garhwali Folktale from Chamoli Garhwal; Forecasting Factors for Manager and Management in Garhwali Folktale from Rudraprayag Garhwal; Forecasting Factors for Manager and Management in Garhwali Folktale from Tehri Garhwal; Forecasting Factors for Manager and Management in Garhwali Folktale from Uttarkashi Garhwal; Forecasting Factors for Manager and Management in Garhwali Folktale from Dehradun Garhwal; Forecasting Factors for Manager and Management in Garhwali Folktale from Haridwar Garhwal; Forecasting Factors for Manager and Management in Garhwali Folktale from Garhwal, Central Himalaya; Forecasting Factors for Manager and Management in Garhwali Folktale from Garhwal, North India; Forecasting Factors for Manager and Management in Garhwali Folktale from Garhwal South Asia